The Netflix/Paramount-Warner Takeover — A Briefing for CICAE Members • CICAE

It is a crucial turning point for arthouse cinemas worldwide: The possible takeover of Warner Bros. Studios and HBO/HBO Max by Netflix or Paramount Skydance represents a new level of escalation in the ever-accelerating trend towards market concentration in the global film and media industry. Increasingly, fewer and fewer companies control ever larger parts of production, catalogues and distribution. This development is particularly risky for arthouse cinemas as it threatens to severely impair access to films and repertoire, reduce the diversity of offerings and increase the risk of de facto monopoly structures and a massive concentration of cultural influence. The CICAE, together with its global partners, is monitoring developments in this, at present, highly volatile situation very closely. Below you will find an overview of the current takeover and merger plans involving Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance, and an assessment of the possible consequences for arthouse cinemas as well as information on the next steps CICAE and its partners will take.

On 5 December 2025, Netflix announced an agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Studios and HBO/HBO Max for $72 billion (equity value) or $82.7 billion (enterprise value). Payment is set to be made partly in cash ($23.25 per share) and partly in Netflix shares ($4.50 per share).

The deal includes the entire Warner Bros. film studio, the TV production division, DC Studios, the HBO brand including the HBO Max streaming service, and the extensive film library — from Casablanca to Harry Potter to Game of Thrones. Warner Bros. Discovery's cable networks (CNN, TNT, HGTV, etc.) are not part of the Netflix deal. These are supposed to be spun off as an independent company called ‘Discovery Global’ in mid-2026.

Just three days later, on 8 December, David Ellison's Paramount Skydance launched a hostile takeover bid directly to Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders. The offer: $30 per share in cash for the entire company — including the cable networks. This corresponds to a total value of $108.4 billion.

David Ellison is the son of Oracle founder Larry Ellison (estimated net worth: $277 billion). Paramount Skydance was only formed in August 2025 through the merger of Skydance Media and Paramount Pictures. The Paramount offer is backed by three sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Abu Dhabi) with $24 billion, among others.

On 16 December, the board of Warner Bros. Discovery recommended that its shareholders reject the Paramount offer in favour of the Netflix bid.

Warner Bros. is one of the most important distributors of repertoire films. Its library includes classics from Casablanca to pre-1986 MGM titles and RKO classics. In many European countries, Warner Bros. also operates as a local film producer and therefore has a larger local catalogue.

The problem is that Netflix does not rent its films to cinemas for repertoire screenings in a standardised manner. If this practice should be applied to the Warner catalogue, arthouse cinemas stand to lose access to a significant part of their programming.

Increasing market concentration poses not only economic risks, but also significant cultural and democratic risks. When fewer and fewer companies control a growing share of film production, catalogues and distribution channels, cultural influence also becomes concentrated in the hands of a few players. This influences which stories are told, which perspectives are visible and which topics reach the public at all. 

This development is problematic for the democratic diversity of opinion that arthouse cinemas around the world stand for: less diversity in the production and distribution landscape means less plurality in cultural discourse in the long term — and thus a weakening of the cinema as a place for diverse, independent and socially relevant narratives.

Myth 1: ‘One of the deals is better for cinemas’Reality: From a cinema perspective, neither deal is good. Fewer studios means fewer films, less competition for creative talent, and accelerating market consolidation. The 2018 Disney-Fox merger shows what such consolidation means: in 2016, Disney and 20th Century Fox together released 26 films with wide US theatrical distribution. Today, that number is 14 — a decline of 46%. Of course, it is encouraging that Paramount Skydance promises ‘30+ films per year’ despite all this; but such promises are not legally binding.

Myth 2: ‘Netflix will change its cinema strategy’Reality: Netflix has not made a U-turn. Netflix-CEO Ted Sarandos says that the company will continue to bring Warner films to the cinema. However, he also claims that exclusive cinema windows are ‘not consumer-friendly’ and need to ‘evolve’. Netflix operates only two cinemas worldwide (Paris Theatre in New York, Egyptian Theatre in Los Angeles) and uses them primarily for Oscar-qualifying runs. The company has not changed its model for Netflix films — and there is no indication that this will change with Warner Bros. Furthermore, individual CEO statements are, again, not legally binding. 

Myth 3: ‘Regulatory hurdles will stop the deal, especially in the EU.’ Reality: Experts do not expect a blockade. Following an initial pre-notification procedure, the European Commission will initiate formal merger control proceedings. Similar reviews will be conducted in all other jurisdictions in which the two companies are active. These procedures are extensive multi-stage procedures and involve an in-depth competition law assessment of potential effects on value-chains, market structures, competition, and cultural diversity. The review will therefore constitute a central element of the further process.

However, European antitrust experts largely agree that, while the European Commission will review the deal, it is unlikely to block it. One expert put it clearly in The Hollywood Reporter: ‘Everybody knows that when push comes to shove, [the European Commission] will not do anything that remotely upsets the U.S. administration.’

In the geopolitical reality, the EU is unlikely to block a merger between two purely US companies — especially not under a Trump administration that has already actively intervened in the deal.

Can the deal be prevented? 

A realistic assessment: probably not by the EU alone. The European Commission will review the deal and possibly impose conditions (as in the Disney-Fox merger, when Disney had to divest certain TV stations). However, a complete blockade is unlikely.

This does not mean that engagement is pointless. On the contrary: the conditions imposed in the event of approval can make all the difference.

Quite a bit: The CICAE has been monitoring these developments closely and remains in constant dialogue with all parties involved; both with partners and stakeholders across the audiovisual industries and with the political and regulatory side. For the CICAE it is clear: the interests and perspectives of arthouse cinemas have to play a vital role in any upcoming merger control proceedings. We are in close exchange with antitrust and merger law consultants and will take an active role in the upcoming merger proceedings; from the upcoming pre-notification process onward. The CICAE will fight to ensure that arthouse cinemas' legitimate concerns regarding antitrust issues and their impact on the independent cinema industry and cultural diversity are being taken into account.

CICAE President Dr Christian Bräuer:

Amidst this development, there is one aspect that we view positively: Paramount's latest public commitment to cinema distribution has brought cinema back into the public debate.

David Ellison promised ‘30+ films per year’ with cinema distribution and explicitly argues that his offer is better for Hollywood and the cinema industry. Whether these promises will be kept is questionable — but the fact that cinema distribution is being used as a selling point shows that the issue has political weight.

Netflix, too, now feels compelled to make reasonably positive commitments to cinema distribution — even if these remain vague. A few years ago, this would have been unthinkable.

• No further market consolidation — The best solution for cinema is for none of the deals to go ahead. One less studio means fewer films, less diversity, less cinema.
• Regulatory requirements for fair market access — US, UK and EU antitrust authorities must ensure that creators and cinemas continue to work under fair conditions and have access to content. Pluralism, competition and a sustainable division of control between production and distribution must be guaranteed.
• A binding commitments to cinema — If a takeover is approved, we demand legally binding commitments for cinema distribution: a minimum number of cinema releases per year, fair exclusive theatrical windows, guaranteed access to repertoire catalogues for all cinemas — from multiplexes to single-screen arthouse cinemas.

The most important message at the end: This is the moment to stand together! No matter if it's small, medium, or large — one less studio is a threat to us all. The consolidation of the film industry affects arthouse cinemas and multiplex chains alike, albeit in different ways. Solidarity must also include the creative side. The Writers Guild of America (WGA), the Directors Guild of America (DGA), the Producers Guild of America (PGA) and the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) have all expressed concerns. The interests of filmmakers and cinemas overlap here: fewer films mean less work for creatives and less programming for cinemas. Defending this shared cultural experience is the task we face.

Best wishes for the holidays and a happy new year 2026!

Dr Christian Bräuer — CICAE President

Dr Sebastian Naumann — CICAE Managing Directorand the entire CICAE head office.